The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Nigeria’s total public debt will rise steadily to 44.2 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2027.
The IMF gave this forecast in its April Fiscal Monitor, released yesterday, in Washington, adding that the total fiscal spending of the General Government (Federal and state governments) will widen to 6.4 per cent of GDP this year, 2022, from 6.0 per cent at the end of 2021.
According to the Debt Management Office (DMO), national public debt rose by 20 per cent, year-on-year, YoY, to N39.56 trillion in 2021 from N32.92 trillion in 2020.
“With the Total Public Debt Stock to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as at December 31, 2021, of 22.47 per cent, the Debt-to-GDP ratio still remains within Nigeria’s self-imposed limit of 40%”, the DMO said.
The IMF, however, disagreed, stating that nation’s Debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 37.0 per cent at the end of 2021, and will rise to 37.4 per cent in 2022, 38.8 per cent in 2023, 40.2 per cent in 2024, 41.6 per cent in 2025, 42.9 per cent in 2026 and to 44.2 per cent in 2027.
The IMF also projected that the General Government fiscal deficit would slightly improve from 6.4 per cent to 5.9 in 2023 and 2024, before deteriorating, once again, to 6.1 in 2025, 6.3 per cent in 2026 and 6.4 per cent in 2027.