Nigeria’s public external debt is projected to rise by $20.7bn by 2027, the
country’s election year, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The IMF gave the projection in its 2026 Article IV Consultation report on
Nigeria released recently. According to the Fund, public external debt would
increase from $51.9bn in 2025 to $72.6bn by 2027. The projected increase
represents a 39.9 per cent rise within two years and underscores growing
concerns over the country’s debt burden despite recent improvements in
macroeconomic stability.
The Fund noted since that Nigeria’s next presidential election would take place
in January 2027; the spending pressures associated with rising poverty, food
insecurity and the election cycle could widen fiscal deficits and increase
borrowing requirements. “Spending pressures from elevated poverty and food
insecurity, including in the run-up to the elections, could widen fiscal deficit
and increase financing needs,” the IMF stated.
According to the Fund’s Balance of Payments projections, public external debt
is expected to rise from $51.9bn in 2025 to $66.5bn in 2026 before climbing
further to $72.6bn in 2027.
The IMF’s projection broadly aligns with the latest Debt Management Office
data, which showed that Nigeria’s public external debt stood at $51.86bn as of
December 31, 2025.
Based on the Fund’s forecast, the debt stock would increase by about $20.74bn
between the end of 2025 and 2027.
Beyond public debt, the IMF projected that Nigeria’s total external debt stock,
which includes both public and private sector obligations, would rise from
$109.3bn in 2025 to $119.3bn in 2026 and further to $132.0bn in 2027.
This indicates that total external debt could increase by $22.7bn between 2025
and 2027, with $12.7bn of the increase occurring in 2027 alone.
The report showed that public external debt would remain elevated relative to
the size of the economy and export earnings. Public external debt is projected to
increase from 17.9 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 18.7 per cent in 2027. As a share
of exports of goods and services, it is expected to rise from 82.9 per cent in
2025 to 104.3 per cent by 2027.
