Nigeria exported an estimated 148.9 million barrels of crude oil valued at about
N20.22tn in the first five months of 2026, showcasing the scale of the country’s
oil trade despite persistent concerns over production levels.
The crude barrels were exported by both international and indigenous oil
companies, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited
(NNPCL).
While the export of crude oil may lead to a lack of sufficient domestic feedstock
for Dangote Petroleum Refinery and other local refineries, it boosts the
country’s foreign exchange earnings.
An analysis of crude oil production and export data for January to May 2026
showed that the country’s crude exports were worth approximately $14.66bn,
equivalent to N20.22tn at an exchange rate of N1,380 to the dollar.
In comparison, Nigeria exported 154 million barrels of crude worth about
$11.32bn during the same period of 2025. Although export volume in 2026 fell
by 5.1 million barrels, representing a 3.3 per cent decline, the export value
jumped by about $3.33bn, or 29.5 per cent, driven by significantly higher crude
oil prices this year.
The figures obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)indicate that the
total volume of crude oil produced by the country during the five-month review
period in 2026 was 216.85 million barrels, with a gross market value of
approximately $21.28bn, or about N29.36tn, using the same exchange rate.
The calculations were derived from the average daily crude oil production and
export volumes for each month, multiplied by the number of days in the
respective months, and valued using the corresponding average monthly Bonny
Light crude oil prices.
A breakdown of the CBN figures showed that Nigeria produced about 45.26
million barrels in January, 36.68 million barrels in February, 42.78 million
barrels in March, 44.70 million barrels in April, and 47.43 million barrels in
May.
Crude exports followed a similar trend, with 31.31 million barrels exported in
January, 24.08 million barrels in February, 28.83 million barrels in March,
31.20 million barrels in April, and 33.48 million barrels in May.
Using the prevailing average crude prices for each month, January’s exports
were valued at about $2.13bn, February $1.74bn, March $3.06bn, April
$3.95bn, and May $3.77bn, bringing the cumulative export value to $14.66bn.
On the production side, crude output was valued at approximately $3.08bn in
January, $2.65bn in February, $4.54bn in March, $5.67bn in April, and $5.34bn
in May, resulting in a cumulative value of $21.28bn.
The data further showed that average daily crude oil production improved over
the review period. Output increased from 1.46 million barrels per day in January
to 1.53 million barrels per day in May after dropping to 1.31 million barrels per
day in February.
Average daily crude exports also rose from 1.01 million barrels per day in
January to 1.08 million barrels per day in May, despite recording 0.86 million
barrels per day in February.
Overall, Nigeria exported about 68.7 per cent of the crude oil it produced during
the five months, leaving roughly 67.95 million barrels available for domestic
refining, storage, operational use, and inventory adjustments.
The effect of the US-Iran war was also felt in the monthly average prices of
crude from March to May. In January and February, before the war started,
average crude prices were $68.05 and $72.33 a barrel. But the prices jumped to
$106.09 in March, $126.71 in April, and $112.63 in May, reflecting the sharp
rise in crude prices due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The estimated values represent the gross market value of the crude oil based on
average monthly international crude prices and do not reflect actual government
revenue, which is affected by production-sharing contracts, royalties, taxes,
operational costs, domestic crude supply obligations, and other commercial
arrangements.
Meanwhile, Nigeria’s crude oil export earnings rose by almost 30 per cent in the
first five months of 2026 despite a decline in export volumes, as higher
international oil prices more than offset the lower shipments.
While the country exported an estimated 148.9 million barrels of crude oil
during the period, approximately 154.0 million barrels were exported in the
corresponding period of 2025.
The figures indicate that crude export volumes declined by about 5.1 million
barrels, representing a 3.3 per cent year-on-year decrease. Average daily crude
exports also dropped from 1.02 million barrels per day in the first five months
of 2025 to 0.984 million barrels per day during the same period in 2026, a
decline of 3.5 per cent.
Despite the lower export volumes, the estimated value of Nigeria’s crude oil
exports surged to about $14.66bn between January and May 2026 from
approximately $11.32bn recorded during the corresponding period of 2025.
This represents an increase of about $3.34bn, or 29.5 per cent, within one year.
This highlighted the effect of the US-Iran conflict on crude prices this year.
At an exchange rate of N1,380 to the United States dollar, the estimated value
of crude exports for the first five months of 2026 translates to approximately
N20.22tn, compared with about N15.62tn in the same period of 2025.
The analysis showed that the increase in export earnings was driven largely by
stronger international crude oil prices rather than higher export volumes.
Although Nigeria exported fewer barrels in 2026, the significantly higher crude
oil prices, particularly in March, April, and May, boosted the overall market
value of the country’s crude exports.
Domestic crude supply to Nigeria’s refineries declined to 15.84 million barrels
in May 2026, even as the facilities achieved a combined intake of 17.92 million
barrels for the month, according to the latest midstream and downstream
statistics released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum
Regulatory Authority.
Across the first five months of the year, domestic supply to refineries had
shown a generally upward trend, rising from 8.83 million barrels in January and
8.86 million barrels in February to 11.49 million barrels in March, before
peaking in April and moderating in May.