Capital inflows from China into Nigeria fell by 40.9 per cent in the first quarter of 2026 despite the Federal Government’s announcement that it had secured over $20bn in investment commitments from Chinese investors across manufacturing, energy, mining, agriculture and other sectors.
Analysis of the National Bureau of Statistics’ Capital Importation Report for Q1 2026 showed that capital imported from China declined to $5.55m during the review period from $9.39m in the corresponding quarter of 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 40.89 per cent.
The latest figure also represented a 13.69 per cent decline from the $6.43m recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025, indicating that Chinese capital inflows weakened on both annual and quarterly bases despite growing economic ties between the two countries.
In a statement in July 2025, the current Minister of Power, who was then the Director General of the Nigeria-China Strategic Partnership, Joseph Tegbe, said the $20bn commitment was secured through a series of engagements following the recent elevation of Nigeria-China relations to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.
“Recent engagements have secured over $20 billion in investment commitments, focusing on critical sectors such as agriculture, automotive manufacturing, mining, steel production, and energy. These investments are set to boost food security, create jobs, and drive a new wave of industrial development in the country.
“These are not just promises. We are looking at tangible projects that will create jobs, boost food security, enhance power generation, and reposition Nigeria as a major manufacturing hub in Africa,” the statement read.
However, the latest capital importation data suggests those commitments have yet to translate into stronger recorded foreign capital inflows from China. China’s contribution to Nigeria’s total capital importation also weakened during the quarter. The country’s share dropped from 0.17 per cent in Q1 2025 to 0.05 per cent in Q1 2026. Compared with the preceding quarter, China’s share also declined from 0.10 per cent to 0.05 per cent, even as Nigeria recorded a sharp increase in overall foreign capital inflows.
An analysis of the five-quarter trend showed that Chinese investments in Nigeria have remained volatile. Capital inflows fell from $9.39m in Q1 2025 to $2.69m in Q2 before rebounding sharply to $20.15m in Q3 2025, the highest level during the period under review. They subsequently declined to $6.43m in Q4 2025 before falling further to $5.55m in the first quarter of 2026.
This contrasts with Nigeria’s overall capital importation performance. According to the NBS, total capital imported into the country rose to $10.37bn in Q1 2026 from $5.64bn in the corresponding quarter of 2025, representing an 83.83 per cent year-on-year increase. Compared with the fourth quarter of 2025, total capital importation also increased by 60.97 per cent from $6.44bn.
The divergence shows China’s diminishing contribution to Nigeria’s foreign capital inflows despite the broader surge in investment entering the country.
The NBS report showed that portfolio investment continued to dominate capital inflows, accounting for $9.86bn, or 95.09 per cent, of total capital imported during the quarter. Other investment stood at $374.48m, representing 3.61 per cent, while foreign direct investment amounted to just $135.08m, accounting for 1.30 per cent of total capital importation.
Sectoral analysis showed that the banking sector attracted the largest inflow at $7.55bn, representing 72.79 per cent of total capital imported into Nigeria. It was followed by the financing sector with $2.43bn, accounting for 23.42 per cent, while the production and manufacturing sector received $152.27m, equivalent to 1.47 per cent of total inflows.
By country of origin, the United Kingdom remained Nigeria’s largest source of capital, with $5.08bn, accounting for 49.01 per cent of total inflows. The United States followed with $3.18bn, representing 30.69 per cent, while South Africa contributed $983.83m, or 9.49 per cent. Mauritius and the United Arab Emirates completed the top five with $390.07m and $194.51m, respectively.