Nigeria’s economy is on course to grow by 4.1% in 2026, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), but a closer look at the numbers reveals an uncomfortable reality: the sectors driving growth are not where most Nigerians work.
In its July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update, the IMF retained Nigeria’s growth forecasts at 4.1% for 2026 and 4.3% for 2027 despite disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict.
The Fund projects global economic growth of 3.0% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, slightly below the 3.5% average recorded between 2024 and 2025.
Nigeria’s economy expanded by 3.89% in the first quarter of 2026, up from 3.13% in the corresponding period of 2025.
On the surface, the numbers point to an economy gaining momentum. But the composition of that growth tells a more complicated story.
Services, ICT, financial services, construction and oil and gas are among the sectors driving expansion.
Agriculture, trade and manufacturing — sectors that collectively account for 70.3% of Nigeria’s workforce — have recorded average growth of less than 2% over the past three years, according to CardinalStone Research.
Meanwhile, ICT, finance, real estate and administrative services are expanding at more than 5%, even though each employs less than 1% of Nigeria’s labour force individually.
The result is an economy where GDP can rise faster than jobs, wages and household purchasing power.