Economists and asset managers warned that sub-Saharan Africa’s economic crunch will likely extend to the end of 2026, dashing hopes that the US-Iran ceasefire would ease short-term conditions in a region badly impacted by the war. “The real effects of a conflict like this do not end when the headlines soften,” said Cliff Bakashaba, head of investments at Jubilee Asset Management in Nairobi.
S&P Ratings said the damage done to the continent’s fiscal balances is already baked into the second half of the year. Last week, the agency cut its projection for South Africa’s GDP growth by 20 basis points for both 2026 and 2027. It estimated a growth rate of 1.3% and 1.5% respectively. Nigeria’s GDP projections were also lowered by 30 basis points to 3.7% for 2026 and 3.5% for 2027, reflecting its dependence on imported refined fuel.
Capital Economics said the de-escalation buys African policymakers a bit of wiggle room to manage the prolonged economic hangover of the US-Iran war. The majority of the continent’s energy and fertilizers pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and the waterway’s effective closure sparked fuel-price hikes and related protests, along with dire warnings about food security and inflation.